Revv22's Blog

October 31, 2011

Kazi Kwa Vijana; politically speaking.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga (front) and Deputy PM Musalia Mudavadi

Prime Minister Raila Odinga (front) and Deputy PM Musalia Mudavadi

First off I highly condem any action that would rob struggling Kenyans of an opportunity to better their standards of living. Youth unemployment levels are in stiff competion with inflation and comodities prizes as if to see how high they have to be to break our hopes.

When the Interim World Bank Audit Report came out, many people were rightfully demanding for an explanation and investigation. I share in those demands. What I don’t blindly share however, are the motivations behind some of the reactions which condemed the PM to the gallows even before the man had a chance to speak on the matter. This quickly drove me think of the political motivations and implications of the allegations and possible eventualities for Mr. Raila Odinga in the run up to 2012

The Kazi kwa Vijana (KKV) scam is exactly the kind of ammunition that would tear through the flesh of Raila Odingas presidential ambitions. But it is not the first time he has had to face such a threat. The Triton Oil and the Maize scandals were both like the highly efficient Sierra Diamond Line Molly Sierra 168gr HPBT bullets in the hands of a skilled sniper. He however survived these for a number of reasons; he had the canopy of an armoured vehicle in the form of support from ODM MPs and the reformer outlook he enjoyed, and he also had a high end Kevlar jacket (bullet proof) in the form of his populist approach to politics that ensured he enjoyed support of the masses and his own charismatic statesman approach in dealing with allegations as he never openly projected the blame to the next person.

This time round, with KKV as the new ammo, both his strong points seem to be gravely compromised. His opponents have been diligent in their efforts to insert flaws in the masterpiece he created over decades in Kenyan politics that portray him as a reformer. Could it be possible that they finally found the perfect solvent for the paint job?

For a snipers bullet to penetrate the body armour of its target or even cause damage to it, there has to be a clear line of sight – the armoured vehicle has to be dealt with first. Slowly by slowly, the numbers of leaders who have been standing in solidarity with the PM in times of need has been waning and at the moment, his heavyweight support seem to be otherwise engaged; Charity Ngilu with troubles she blames on the VP Kalonzo Musyoka, Balala is left to battle Mombasa supremacy battle against Njoho after failing to secure the unelective Coastal peoples spokesmanship which seem to favour Makwere who is both Mijikenda and Muslim, and last but most important Musalia Mudavadi who is facing increased pressure from his community to be his own man and run for the top job come 2012. The likes of youthful-Eugene Wamalwa, serious-Cyrus Jirongo and the recently controversially reinstated foreign affairs minister Moses Wetangula are putting Mudavadi to exam causing the traditional swing vote constituency to abandon their satisfaction with king-making and support nothing less than an overall Omwami.
With this in mind, Mudavadi’s tactics have to be more ambitious. He needs the nation wide appeal that ODM provides while at the same time nothing short of a run for State House would suffice in cementing his back yard support. This in essence makes him the PMs top opponent.

In the Kazi kwa Vijana issue, the PM has adequtely refuted claims that such a scam exists. What this means is that can not take “individual ministerial responsibility”. Or what we characterize as “political responsibility” as Joe Adama explains (see link below).
If Mr.Odinga fails to provide a strong argument for his case during the Prime Miniters time in Parliament, it will be the proverbial hot iron awaiting to be struck and it would be interesting to see what how the ODM number two Mudavadi will react.

This would certainly be his strongest moment, when the ‘flow is at the tide’ . If he chooses to join the “Political responsibility” band wagon, it would be to the delight of the ‘snippers’ and his image as a loyal partner goes out the window together with support from ODM as a national party. He will be left without a what-next-plan that will leave his western Kenya counterparts parading his name as an example of a spineless leader.

Another option would be an offer from Raila as he strategises his own political survival. Now this is not only speculative but highly hyperthetical but bare with me for a minute. With every recent presidential polling indicating a run-off in the next election, Mr. Odinga may well have to consider employing some melodrama that will either get his direct vote above 51% or give weight to his endorsement of a different ODM flag bearer as, in a “Putin-Medvedev” fashion, he becomes the running mate.

In such a scenario the PM would have to concede that there was indeed a scam going own right under his nose and maybe even go further to expose some unknown facts since he “has nothing to hide”. He would then resign from office in the spirit of being a pace setter and practising what he preaches. A loyal Mudavadi would be expected to facilitate and advocated for a swift investigation into the matter as the highest ranking ODM MP in government as Deputy Prime Minister (or even Acting PM-if the law allows).

Given that so far no one has alleged that the PM is directly involved in stealing, it is likely that any investigations will vindicate him. Opinion polls over the following 3-4-5 months would then take centre stage in informing Mr. Odinga’s next move.

If the trend indicates that there is no relative change in popular vote, it would mean that it is unlikely to change before the campaign period. He would have to endorse Mudavadi as ODMs Presidential
Candidate through a “party nomination” exercise and settle for a running-mate position. His below 51% support will be more useful in this way and it would catch his ‘raila-holic’ competition unaware.

If the polls indicate a decline in support at that stage, the same strategy would be all the more suited since the drop would be a result of the publics opinion of him as an individual and not necessarily the ODM party as a whole. A change of guard would only go to strengthen the party further. He would also dispel the long-standing accusations made by disgruntled MPs from Rift Valley that he is a dictator.

Finaly in the very unlikely scenario that poles indicate that his rating have increased, it would be a new lease of life the man Raila Odinga. He will feel buoyed enough to go the full race for State House with somewhat lesser fear for a run-off complicating things. He would have the initial option of a running mate in Mudavadi. In the event a different hopeful with the ability to deliver more as a running mate comes along, Mudavadi would be free to pursue his presidential ambitions in a different ODM-friendly party which would enable him to neutralise the threats posed by Eugene, Cyrus and Moses at his own backyard and provide a contingency backing for Raila incase there would still be a run-off after all.

“There is a flood in the affairs of men that when taken at the tide leads to great fortune” – William Shakespear

Links:
Joe Adama “Sideshow Time”, in Weekend Star 29/30 Ocober 2011
the-star.co.ke/weekend/siasa/46789-sideshow-time

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October 29, 2011

Theo Walcott would be a better player for Barcelona

Filed under: Uncategorized — revv22 @ 6:37 am
Tags: , , , , ,
Fabregas and Walcott celebrate a goal

Fabregas and Walcott celebrate a goal

It is reported that Fabulous.. I beg your pardon, Fabregas recently indicated that his coach Pep Guardiola should pay closer attention to his former team mate, Arsenal winger Theo Walcott.
Fabregas, whose life long dream of rejoining his childhood club Barcelona finaly came true in the last transfer window opening, has made quite a comfortable landing at Camp Nou that would leave one wondering if he was ever away. In La Liga alone, he has played 7 games, making 4 assists, had 11 shots at goal and score 4. This is as of 25 Oct 2011. The jersey number 4 midfielder who was Arsenal captain and playmaker during his time at there had this to say, “Walcott, more than a player, is a sprinter, he is an explosive footballer who has an incredible change of pace… When he arrived at Arsenal he lacked that ability to make the right decisions when he should take someone on or when he should pass – but he has improved a lot.”
I agree with that the 22 year old Walcott would be a better fit into the Barca style of play for the following reasons.

1.Especially in that Pedro position where he doesn’t have to be “intelligent”, just pacy enough to get to killer through balls before the opponent leaving him in one on one positions with the keeper and no pressure from a defender.

2.He can also make those wide runs that allow him to collect an overhead pass from the coner flag area and bring it at the edge or even inside the penalty area where he can slip it back to any barca player (they ALL have excellent awareness and positioning).

3. The transfer fee money will be good enough to buy a more intelligent winger whose confidence isn’t as fragile and doesn’t constantly worry about the England call up by the stone-faced man in glasses always sitting at the stands.

4. It would also be a reprieve for the player himself who has increasingly expressed a desire to play as an out and out stricker. A position publicly shared by Arsene Wenger, but unfortunately absent from the squad formation he choses that only allows for one stricker. Usually the inform Robin Van Persie followed by a battery of target men anxiously sitting on the bench.

It is a hard opinion for gunners fans to take but days are long gone for One-club-players such as Chelsea’s John Terry and Liverpool’s Steven Gerrard in the world of football. Arsenal football club certainly abandond this policy when Arsene Wenger took charge more than a decade ago and adopted a player developement strategy.

Arsenal Winger

Arsenal Winger

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October 18, 2011

Why I support taking the fight to the HSM (Al- Shaabab) and no one else

Filed under: Uncategorized — revv22 @ 6:13 am
Tags: , , , , ,

I just read an opinion aired on a blogg(link posted below), to the effect that it is not necessary to send our army into Somali land in pursuit of the Al-Shaabab, and that the Anti Stock Theft unit of the Police would suffice in dealing with the terror group.

Al – Shaabab, also known as Harakat Al-Shaabab Al-Mujahidin (HSM) is a group that managed to gain and maintain control most of southern Somalia after its mother organisation, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) that controlled the capital Moghadishu, was driven out by a joint Ethiopian-Ugandan military project. Al-Shaabab was the military wing of ICU and has a cocktail of ideological, forced recruits and volunteer fighters on offer.

So to juxtapose it against Mungiki would only reveal an asymmetrical correlation in an organic sense where Mungiki would be seen as a small child making the clichee statement,”when I grow up…”.

We should be very afraid of the gang, particularly now that it has threatend Kenya. They managed to carry out bombings at the heart of Kampala during the 2010 FIFA world cup which killed more than 70 people, they have successfully manage to kidnapp both Kenyans and foreigners from within our borders and they are known to have links with Al-Qaeda. The US doesn’t take their threat lightly and according to information from their Centre for Foreign Relations(CFR), they have drones hoovering over southern Somalia that are constantly gathering info and occasionally dropping a bomb.

We are at War! The blogger doesn’t seem to appreciate this fact and rushes to point out that it is a joint operation by the Kenya and Somali governments. He calls it an asymmetric war where Kenya is being unfair by using resources that the HSM doesn’t have. I agree with him that the media are bent on calling it a “war” rather than a “joint military op” for its business value, but that is just a Potatoe-Viazi situation, same thing by a different name.

The reason why I particularly support that the fight be taken to Al-Shaabab in Baidoa and other strongholds, is the possibility of the violation of the rights of Kenyan citizens and Refuge seekers that would ensue if the only viable alternative cause of action is to be pursued, which would be a two phase operation as far as my layman projections can forsee:
1. tightly sealing the borders to ensure no entry and exit across Kenya- Somali.
2. Fishing out the militant elements and sympathisers trapped on our side of the border.

Both of these have began simultaneously and the heavy military presence at the border towns is already proving the seal. Whether the crashed helicopter is indeed the result of a mechanical problem as reported or the handiwork of an Al-Shaabab counter is still debatable. Al-Shaabab has both the opportunity and motive. They are, however, always quick to claim responsibility for every single attack they succcesfully carry out.

In an interview with Citizen TV, Francis Kimemia the Permanent Secretary for Security, mentioned a series words that had me gravely worried. Daabab, Eastleigh, sympathisers, legitimate refugees, unregistered refugees, repatriation. The alarm bells were furiously ringing.
The possibility of having ideological supporters on this side of the border is obvious, but panicky and hurried attempts at fishing them out among Kenyan- Somali and Somali refugees can only result in abuse. Like in the US, under the Bush administrations homeland security policies that legitimated racial profiling, there will be gross ethnic profilling and life for the average ethnic in Eastleigh would be tough. You can imagine what it would be like for the over four hundred and fifty thousand refugees in camps up north. It is a well known fact that our country would welcome any quick solutions to the refugee camp “menace” and our government only allows refugees because it needs to be in good books with the UN. Tagging the camps a risk to national security, would provide a permanent solution in the form of mass repatriation. it is for this reason that I hope and pray that any available angle including and prioritising diplomacy, be studied and pursued in resolving the conflict and handing back the refugees their home in a peaceful state.

This would also ensure that our Kenyan brothers and sisters of somali ethnicity are subjected to rights abuse by government agencies as they did in earlier years.

Links:

mwirigi.posterous.com/my-2-cents-on-the-war

http://www.cfr.org/somalia/al-shabaab/p18650

Berrypost.

October 14, 2011

a thousand words…

Filed under: Uncategorized — revv22 @ 2:39 pm

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October 11, 2011

Little spot of red..

Filed under: Uncategorized — revv22 @ 2:11 pm

Its been raining here for 24 hours now and any time it stops, it is just for a brief moment. The pauses are long enough for one to step outside and take in a breather; a smoke; a stroll around the shelter, be it a shack or a sky scrapper. They are long enough for one to do whatever they need to do in between sessions of rainfall.

For me it is a breather. I have always love the smell of wet earth and recently, the smell of the ocean breeze has become an acquired taste.

So I don’t mind the sea front rain. It doesn’t beat down as hard as it does further inland. There are no gustly winds to survive, jus water droplets that gently cover the surface of any thing impermeable they happen to fall upon. On the car outside, they just happened to form blanket of diamond like crystals. As I walked passed feeling tempted to run my fingers across and draw a line through the blanket of droplets, I noticed an odd one.

They were all clear like crystal but this one was red and shiny. Under the gloomy grey skys above, this little red spot was like the sun; trapped in a droplet of water and sent down. It wasn’t magnificently brilliant or anything, just conspicous.
When I was a small boy, I used to love Ladybirds. They were all over and came out way before the rains. With the currents unpredictable weather and climate change, I guess these little buggers are very confused on when to turn into what in their cycle.

http://www.gardencentreswigan.com/ladybird-facts

I went to that site to learn some more about the little thing. I was reminded of the song we used to sing to the ladybird. It was one of the few bugs that no one wanted to kill. It had a magical aura about it and seeing it today, took me back.

There is no real lesson or revelation to this article. Just a child-like appreciation for a creature that I thought ceased to exist.

Berrypost.

October 6, 2011

Love is …

Filed under: Uncategorized — revv22 @ 7:05 am

Do you know what love is? I mean do you really know what it is?! Am not sure if I do, but am sure I once did… Its still a vague memory in my mind long buried in my subconscious alongside my belief in santa clause. Yes, I did once believe in him to. Now I know some of you reading this are probably wondering how a Kenyan kid believes in “father christmas” years before the internet pervades all aspects of social life.. Well there was a time when the colour TV set was the only ‘window’ affordable for the average family to peak into the lives of peoples far away. Postage stamps, postcards and the ever magical Coca Cola adverts kept every kids imagination beaming with the belief that every christmas, a man with a huge white beard, red suit and black boots has a habit of climbing down chimneys and leaving gifts for deserving kids. It didn’t matter that the only structure with a chimney around where I grew up was a waste incinerator within the compound of the catholic run Jamaa Maternity Hospital. Or even that deserving meant being above position 6 at the end year exam; all I knew was that he existed up until I was 12 when I was suddenly surrounded by adolescents and B, my first girlfriend, thought it was “cute” that I believed in father christmas.
Its different with love though because with Santa the image remains vivid even when you grow to believe less and less. With love, the belief remains as you struggle to remember how it felt like the last time you were in it.. Kind of senseless I think because it feels different every other time. Every thing and everyone we fall in love with, we do so in a special. Perhaps that’s the reason why one is always inclined to ask “what do you love about me?” the first time you say you love them. And if you were sincere when you said it, it doesn’t really matter how you answer that question. All the nervousness, slips of the tongue, stammering will seem adorable to the listener. I happen to believe that you can never truly be in love with someone who doesn’t feel the same way for you. Love is a reaction to a trigger factor. Its like a receiver tuning in to a particular frequency that’s transmitting your hearts desires.
When your receiver is turned on, your silent transmitter also boots up and you happen to stay in the same wavelength. You are able to understand and be ok with who ever you are communicating with. You get so comfortable together and the only fear is that something external comes and scramble the interconnection quality.

I remember doing silly things to get B’s attention, like getting a friend to pick on her so that I could come to the rescue. I remember giving her money one day and writing her a letter the next, taking strolls after school to no where in particular. We were so good together that we were picked to be the lead dancers in the school dance at the drama festival; Pekeshe and Mwadilo- a traditional Giriama wedding ceremony.

I must have known what love was back then, for I surely can’t remember giving a serious thought to having any other girlfriend; and never feeling insecure enough to be jealous when other guys came on to her albeit the fact that neither of us were angels. What puzzles me is that I can’t put my finger down on what exactly motivated me. As much as I remember almost every detail of what I did, I can’t seem to remember why I did those things just to be with her.

That first encounter with a girl was, for so long, the stencil from which my subsequent relationships were traced and with time the few who managed to access my heart made alterations to that stencil. In fact only two other people have ever done this, N and K. Its too hurtful to talk about N and the story about K is too wild for some feeble minds so I won’t go into those just yet.

At the moment, some one else seems to posses the ability to draw stake from heart. To remove this sharp, crude wooden artillery that’s was driven into my heart the last time I was heartbroken to numbness. The story is too premature to tell, but I have a feeling, a tingle sensation in my lips, a faster beat in my rhythm whenever I think about it, a feeling that I may have fallen in love and don’t know it. I mean how could I, am the same guy who doesn’t know what love is and certainly don’t believe in Santa Clause.

Berrypost.

Berrypost.

Berrypost.

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